Germany's Medical Cannabis Market in 2025-2026: What the Import Data Reveals About Supply Competition

Germany's medical cannabis market grew faster in 2025 than almost any analyst predicted when the Cannabis Act (CanG) passed in April 2024. The import permit data published by Germany's Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM) is now available through Q1 2026, and the numbers are significant enough that any operator planning a European export strategy needs to understand what they show, and what they don't.

The headline figure is striking. Germany imported 201,094 kg of medical cannabis products in the full year 2025, up from 72,706 kg in 2024. That is a near-tripling in a single year. But the more strategically important data points are the supplier breakdown and the structural reasons behind it, because they define what you are actually competing against if you are a Thai producer trying to enter this market.

The Scale of Germany's Market Growth

The CanG's most consequential provision was not legalization of recreational use. It was the removal of cannabis from Germany's Narcotics Act (BtMG) for medical purposes and the corresponding removal of barriers that had previously limited medical prescribing. From April 2024 onward, any licensed physician in Germany could prescribe cannabis for any indication without the prior authorization process that had previously slowed market growth. Germany's statutory health insurance (GKV), which covers roughly 90% of the population, was required to reimburse approved prescriptions.

The result was a prescription surge. Industry estimates cited a roughly 3,300% increase in prescriptions within 18 months of the CanG taking effect. Import volumes tracked accordingly: 72,706 kg in 2024 (partial-year effect of CanG, which passed mid-year), then 201,094 kg in 2025 as the full prescription year played out.

That growth hit a regulatory ceiling before the year ended. Germany operates under UN Single Convention treaty obligations that require BfArM to set and enforce annual narcotics import quotas. By September 2025, Germany had consumed its full-year import allocation of 122 tonnes. BfArM raised the ceiling to 192.5 tonnes on October 20, 2025 and resumed issuing import permits. The market still ended the year above even the raised ceiling at 201,094 kg, a clear signal that underlying demand continues to outpace the regulatory infrastructure designed to manage it.

Q1 2026 data is now available. Germany imported 50,539 kg in the first quarter alone, down approximately 15% from Q4 2025 (likely reflecting the post-quota-reset catch-up dynamic of Q4) but up roughly 34% year-over-year compared to Q1 2025. At the Q1 2026 annualized pace, Germany is on track for approximately 200 tonnes again in 2026, assuming demand conditions hold.

Who Is Actually Supplying Germany

The Q1 2026 BfArM data shows Canada as the dominant supplier by a wide margin: 26,753 kg in Q1 2026, representing 53% of total German imports for the quarter. Portugal was second at 10,342 kg. Denmark was third at 3,338 kg.

Before drawing the obvious conclusion that Canada and Portugal are simply the best cannabis producers, it is important to understand what these numbers actually represent. The figures are exports from those countries, not exclusively cannabis grown in those countries.

Portugal has become a significant EU-GMP processing hub. A substantial portion of Portugal's export volumes to Germany consists of cannabis biomass grown in Canada, Colombia, and other countries that is shipped to Portuguese EU-GMP-certified facilities for processing, packaging, and quality release, and then re-exported to Germany as a Portuguese product. The 10,342 kg attributed to Portugal in Q1 2026 overstates Portuguese-origin cultivation and understates Portuguese processing capacity. Canada's 26,753 kg largely reflects EU-GMP-certified Canadian manufacturing that sells directly into the German pharmaceutical distribution chain under German import permits.

Denmark's 3,338 kg reflects Danish domestic cultivation and processing under EU-GMP, supported by government-backed production facilities that have been operational and exporting to Germany for several years.

Why the EU-GMP Requirement Determines Who Wins

EU-GMP certification is not optional for medical cannabis entering German pharmaceutical distribution. BfArM requires that medicinal cannabis imported into Germany be manufactured in a facility holding EU-GMP certification from the relevant national competent authority. For cultivation of flower intended as a starting material, EU-GACP compliance is required. For finished products and extracts entering pharmacy dispensing, EU-GMP Part I or Part II applies depending on the product type and dosage form.

This is the structural reason Canada dominates. Canada's largest licensed producers, including Aurora, Aphria (now part of Tilray), and others, began pursuing EU-GMP certification years before Germany opened its market at scale. By the time German prescription volumes surged in 2024 and 2025, Canadian producers had the certifications, the production capacity, and the established import permit relationships to fill demand immediately. Thailand, by contrast, had 217 DTAM GACP-certified operators as of February 2026 and a small number of facilities with any EU-aligned quality certification.

Portugal's rise is not a cultivation story. It is a manufacturing infrastructure story. Portugal built out EU-GMP processing capacity, partly with government support and partly through commercial investment, specifically to serve as a European gateway for non-EU biomass. Canadian biomass enters Portugal under Portuguese import permits, gets processed to EU-GMP standards, and exits as a Portuguese product into the German supply chain. This model works because EU-GMP certification is attached to the processing facility, not the origin of the raw material.

What This Means for Thai Exporters

Thai producers reading these supply figures as evidence that they cannot compete with Canada are drawing the wrong conclusion. Thai producers reading them as evidence that EU-GMP capability is what determines access to the German market are drawing the right one.

There are two credible pathways for Thai cannabis to reach the German market. The first is direct EU-GMP certification on Thai soil: a Thai manufacturer builds a facility to EU-GMP standards, pursues certification from an EU member state competent authority under mutual recognition or inspection, and exports directly to German licensed importers. This pathway is achievable and the right long-term investment for serious Thai operators, but it requires 18 to 36 months of construction, documentation build-out, inspection preparation, and certification process time.

The second pathway is the Portugal model applied to Thailand: GACP-compliant cultivation and primary processing in Thailand, export of biomass to a licensed EU-GMP processing facility (in Portugal or another EU member state), and final product release and export to Germany from the EU facility. This pathway does not require Thai EU-GMP certification. It requires credible Thai GACP documentation, reliable export logistics under GDP conditions, and a trusted EU processing partner. Thai producers who are already DTAM GACP-certified and building toward internationally recognized third-party audit status, such as CUMCS from Control Union, are the ones who can execute this pathway near-term.

The German market's scale makes both pathways commercially viable for Thai operators who build the compliance infrastructure to access them. At 200 tonnes annually and growing, there is room for new supply if it meets the quality bar. At Thailand's current compliance level, that bar is the limiting factor, not buyer demand.

The Risk Factor: 2026 Demand Trajectory

Germany's prescription-driven demand surge is not without political risk. The CDU/CSU-led government has proposed amendments to the Medical Cannabis Act (MedCanG) that would restrict telemedicine prescribing and ban mail-order pharmacy dispensing for cannabis. These proposals, if passed, would likely reduce total active patients and temper the import volume growth trajectory. The Bundestag has not yet voted and the SPD coalition partner has signaled opposition to the bill in its current form.

Even under a scenario where the MedCanG amendments pass and reduce demand by 20 to 30%, Germany would still represent the largest single medical cannabis import market in Europe by a significant margin. The underlying structural drivers, mandatory GKV reimbursement, open prescribing to any physician, a large insured patient population, are not changed by the proposed amendments. For suppliers planning two to three year investment and certification timelines, Germany's demand fundamentals are strong enough to justify the work.

DeeMED's medical cannabis export consulting work covers both the Thai regulatory side and the destination market requirements, including EU-GMP pathways, GACP documentation, and GDP-compliant logistics for shipments destined for Germany and other European markets. If you are evaluating the German market as a target and want a clear-eyed assessment of where your current compliance position stands against what BfArM requires, reach out directly.