The Middle East Conflict Is Not a Temporary Disruption Anymore: What Thai Pharmaceutical Exporters Must Plan For Now

When the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, most logistics operators treated it as a short-term disruption, the kind of event that resolves within weeks and requires contingency routing for a defined period before normality returns. Three months later, that framing has been proven wrong. The Global Cold Chain Alliance's situation report dated May 20, 2026 is unambiguous: the Strait of Hormuz crisis has deepened rather than stabilized, mine-clearing operations have a six-month projected timeline, and commercial viability of the Strait is unlikely before Q4 2026 at the earliest. For Thai exporters of pharmaceutical products and medical cannabis, this is now a logistics planning baseline for the rest of the year, not an exception to be managed around.

The Three Phases and Where We Are Now

The GCCA's analysis identifies three distinct phases since February 28. The first was an immediate halt in carrier operations through March, as airlines suspended Gulf routes and ocean carriers stopped Suez Canal transits. Dubai International Airport, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical air cargo hubs, was effectively closed to freight for extended periods. Doha, another critical hub for Europe-Asia pharmaceutical routing, faced the same disruptions. Emirates SkyCargo and Qatar Airways, both heavily used for temperature-sensitive pharmaceutical shipments between Europe and Asia, moved to limited operations on selected routes.

The second phase ran from March through April, as operators shifted to overland and multimodal workarounds. Trucking from Jeddah and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia became an alternative entry point for Gulf-destined pharmaceutical cargo. Istanbul and Oman emerged as routing options. Ocean cargo rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding significant transit time and cost. During this phase, many operators assumed they were managing a temporary problem.

The current phase, confirmed by the May 20 GCCA update, is more complex. A "dual blockade" characterization reflects both the Strait of Hormuz closure and continued Bab al-Mandeb instability. A ceasefire has been declared and repeatedly violated. Mine-clearing in the Strait is underway but carries a six-month timeline, meaning commercial maritime traffic through Hormuz is not realistic before Q4 2026 under the most optimistic scenario. The medium-term model that has emerged is a smaller set of direct maritime services into safe gateway ports, supplemented by a structurally larger role for multimodal land bridges. This is the working assumption for operators across the sector, not a contingency plan.

What This Means Specifically for Thailand

Thailand's pharmaceutical export geography makes this disruption directly relevant. Medical cannabis exports to Germany and the broader EU, pharmaceutical products moving to Middle Eastern markets, and cold chain shipments transiting through Dubai or Doha for onward distribution are all affected by the routing changes that have become standard since March.

Thailand itself has implemented fuel surcharges on cartage in response to elevated jet fuel prices, which reached approximately $195 per barrel in late March and were projected to exceed $200 per barrel. These surcharges are not a temporary measure. They reflect the structural cost shift that has followed from elevated oil prices and rerouted capacity. Operators who built their logistics budgets for 2026 on pre-conflict fuel and freight cost assumptions are working with numbers that no longer match reality.

For medical cannabis exports specifically, the routing implications layer onto an already complex documentation environment. Medical cannabis shipments require INCB export authorization, GDP-compliant cold chain management, and traceability documentation from origin to final delivery. When a shipment's routing changes mid-transit or is delayed due to airspace restrictions, the documentation chain must track that accurately. A temperature excursion caused by an unexpected reroute through a non-GDP-validated hub does not become exempt from documentation requirements because of geopolitical circumstances. The receiving country's importer still needs a compliant chain of custody, regardless of what happened in the Gulf.

Air Cargo Routing: The Practical Picture in Late May

Middle Eastern carriers, including Emirates and Etihad, have largely resumed and stabilized flight operations after the most acute disruption phase. However, schedules remain subject to change on short notice, and the risk of renewed disruption from a single military strike on regional infrastructure has been demonstrated repeatedly. The port of Salalah in Oman was struck by Iranian missiles on March 28, demonstrating that infrastructure considered safe can become a casualty without warning.

For pharmaceutical air cargo moving from Thailand toward Europe, the standard routing through Dubai has partially recovered but remains operationally fragile. Alternative routings through Singapore, Hong Kong, and directly via long-haul carriers bypassing the Gulf have absorbed significant volume. Capacity on these alternative routes is tighter than pre-conflict levels, which contributes to elevated rates on those corridors. The global air cargo capacity reduction of approximately 22% worldwide, measured in the days immediately following the February 28 strikes, has partially recovered. However, the structural overcrowding of alternative routes has not fully resolved.

For temperature-sensitive cargo specifically, longer routing distances translate directly into increased excursion risk. A shipment that would previously transit Dubai in a controlled, GDP-compliant environment for four to six hours may now spend considerably more time in transit through routing points with less-established pharmaceutical handling protocols. Real-time monitoring across the full transit is not a nice-to-have in this environment. It is the only mechanism that provides the documentation needed to demonstrate cold chain integrity when the route looks different on paper than what the logistics plan described.

What to Do Now

The first step is route audit. Review every active export lane you use that transits the Gulf, whether by air through Dubai or Doha, or by sea through the Strait of Hormuz. For each lane, identify the current operational alternative and verify that your logistics partner has confirmed the GDP status of the replacement routing. If you are relying on your freight forwarder's word that the alternative is GDP-compliant, ask for documentation. A GDP-qualified route requires temperature-mapped transit points, defined handling protocols, and validated backup procedures. The claim needs to be documented, not just stated.

The second step is monitoring configuration. If your current data logger setup was calibrated for a specific transit time and routing, a longer alternative route may require reconfiguration. Single-use data loggers with battery life calibrated for a 24-hour Dubai transit do not automatically provide adequate coverage for a 36-hour rerouted transit through an alternative hub. Review your monitoring coverage against your current actual routing, not your pre-conflict routing plan.

The third step is buyer communication. European and Australian importers of Thai medical cannabis expect to receive shipments that meet their GDP documentation requirements. If your routing has changed, your buyers need to know, and your documentation needs to reflect the actual route taken. Proactive communication with buyers about routing changes, along with documentation confirming GDP compliance on the alternative route, is significantly less disruptive than a buyer discovering a documentation gap during their own import process.

DeeMED Consulting manages GDP-compliant international logistics for medical cannabis and pharmaceutical products from Thailand, including route planning, documentation management, and real-time cold chain monitoring through the Frigga data logger platform. If your current export logistics were planned before the February 28 disruption and have not been formally reviewed since, contact us to assess your current exposure.